Mathematics and statistics in eSports betting
Mathematics and statistics in eSports betting
Mathematics and bookmaker odds are the two most important components for successful betting. They are equally as important as betting tips and tricks that only experts know. A professional gambler never relies on luck alone, although sometimes intuition does help make decisions that lead to winning. By incorporating math into the game, the player creates a good foundation for long-term profits.
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Understanding personal statistics can make all the difference. Here we will explain both of these methods.
How to Use Mathematics?
Gambling games are based entirely on betting math. As you study classic casino games, you may notice it the same way while you're analyzing sports betting. Mathematics helps you calculate probabilities, and probabilities are what determine winning. Look at the following example: a match between two cybersports teams who have the same odds of winning.
Before the game starts, bookmakers present odds for the event. In our case, teams with the same odds will have odds of 2.00 or 50/50. These probabilities do not benefit the bookmaker (the bookmaker loses money by betting absolutely fair odds). Because of that they decrease to 1.90 or even lower. This difference is not essential for the player, but it brings good profit to the bookmaker. Even 100 bets with odds of 2.00 can cause a huge loss for the bookie.
There is a formula that explains how probabilities and math work in betting. To calculate the probability of your success. You need to know the odds (the bookmaker provides them) and the profit you will make if your bet plays in the match. The formula for calculating a player's success is Y=X*Z. X is X, Z is success and Y is profit. If the profit margin is higher than 1, then success is on your side. Otherwise, you may lose that bet.
You can count your success rate in every match, but sometimes luck plays a part and even the most unpredictable bets win.
Statistics in the game
Math is important, but game research can be even more useful to a player. The bottom line is that the probabilities are calculated by bookmakers, who are also human beings, so there is a so-called human factor. This means that the real odds may be different from the odds presented. Take some time to research the information, which will explain your odds better than the mathematical calculations presented by the bookmaker.
An example of such a situation would be the following: two teams, both have good performances in tournaments and the bookmakers estimate their odds as 1.83 (actually, they mean 2.00 or 50/50). Here comes the time for research, but be smart enough not to lose your bet. You get your data by checking the information the bookie and analysts provide, or by your own research method. Both methods are effective, but the second one is more effective (if you are experienced in a certain game).
When you check the data provided by the bookmakers, you only get dry facts and it is difficult for you to imagine how the team actually plays. For example, this kind of information never reflects the style of the team. If the two teams have different playing styles, aggressive and defensive, the actual odds may be very different from the real ones. As a rule of thumb, aggressive play is better when the knowledge and playmaking skill of both teams is equal. So in case the 50/50 probability rule is ineffective - the team with an aggressive style will beat the defensive team.
It is worth understanding that bookmakers do not collect data using human resources, because it takes too much time. They use special applications that analyze the achievements of the team and do not pay attention to the actions of players and strategies that teams implement in different game situations.
People always act in different ways. Even if you follow the same team, you will notice that they act differently every time in similar situations. The fact is that cyber sports is not a mechanical process; it requires you to strategize and analyze every action. On top of that, the quality of your internet connection, software, and technical equipment is extremely important in cyber sports. Little details like a new mouse or keyboard can affect a player's actions. The bottom line is that you'll never guess what's going on behind the screens. You don't know how the players are feeling, or even who is behind the keyboard right now. This makes every contest unpredictable and leaves a pretty good chance of luck.
This fact reinforces the idea that a player needs to combine multiple approaches and work on increasing winnings in the long run. Evaluate the probabilities, analyze the participants, verify the information, choose the most effective strategy for cyber sports, and become successful at betting.