President Donald Trump is backing his tariffs on all fronts. He’s said they protect American industries, attract factories to the United States, generate revenue for the federal government, and provide him with diplomatic leverage. Now, Trump is claiming they can fund a $2,000 check for select Americans.
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When Did Trump Say He’s Cutting The Checks?
The president proposed the idea on his Truth Social media platform on Sunday. His announcement came five days after his Republican Party lost elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere, mainly because voters are sick of his economic leadership, especially the high cost of living. The tariffs are bringing in so much money, the president posted, that “a dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.'”
How Much Money Are Trump’s Tariffs Bringing In & From Who?
Trump’s tariffs are certainly raising money — $195 billion in the budget year that ended Sept. 30, up 153% from $77 billion in fiscal 2024. But they still account for less than 4% of federal revenue and have done little to dent the federal budget deficit, which is a staggering $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2025.
Mainstream economists and budget analysts note that tariffs are paid by U.S. importers who then generally try to pass along the cost to their customers through higher prices.
Treasury Secretary Says He Didn’t Discuss Idea With Trump
Details on when Americans can expect the payout are scarce. There’s no word on what the income limits would be and whether payments would go to children. Even Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, sounded a bit blindsided by the dividend plan. Appearing Sunday on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ Bessent said he hadn’t discussed the tariff dividend check with Trump. Bessent suggested that it might not mean that Americans would get a check from the government. Instead, Bessent said, the rebate might take the form of tax cuts.
“What Check?” Is The Vibe Among Experts
Budget experts scoffed at the idea, per the Associated Press. Trump’s check announcement had everyone recalling memories of the Trump administration’s short-lived plan for DOGE dividend checks. That money was supposed to come from federal budget cuts made by billionaire Elon Musk.
“The numbers just don’t check out,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.
John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, reckons that Trump’s tariffs will bring in $200 billion to $300 billion a year in revenue. But a $2,000 dividend — if it went to all Americans, including children — would cost $600 billion. “It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate,” he said. Ricco also noted that Trump couldn’t just pay the dividends on his own. They would require legislation from Congress.
The dividend plan “misses the mark,” the Tax Foundation’s York said. “If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs.”
Tariffs Are Being Challenged In Court
Another possible problem with the teased check? Trump’s tariffs may not survive a legal challenge that has reached the U.S. Supreme Court. They are the centerpiece of Trump’s protectionist trade policies — double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country in the world.
In a hearing last week, the justices sounded skeptical about whether the Trump administration has the sweeping power to declare national emergencies to justify the tariffs. President Trump has bypassed Congress, which has authority under the Constitution to levy taxes, including tariffs.
If the court strikes down the tariffs, the Trump administration may be refunding money to the importers who paid them, not sending dividend checks to American families. Trump could find other ways to impose tariffs, even if he loses at the Supreme Court. However, it could be cumbersome and time-consuming.
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Associated Press Economics Writer Paul Wiseman contributed to this report via AP Newsroom.
